NRF: Census retail sales data shows households ‘have the underpinnings to spend’

Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau shows retail sales continued to grow in August, fueled by rising wages amid falling inflation, said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist, National Retail Federation (NRF).

“These numbers show the continued resiliency of the American consumer,” Kleinhenz said. “While sales growth decelerated from last month’s pace, there is little hint of consumer spending unraveling. Households have the underpinnings to spend as recent wage gains have outpaced inflation even though payroll growth saw a slowdown in July and August. Easing inflation is providing added spending capacity to cost-weary shoppers and the interest rate cuts expected to come from the Fed should help create a more positive environment for consumers in the future.”

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in August were up 0.1% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.1% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 1.1% month over month and 2.9% year over year in July.

August’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.3% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.4% year over year for the first eight months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported core retail sales were up 0.17% seasonally adjusted month over month in August and up 1.93% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.95% month over month and 1.69% year over year in July. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.